David Jolly (D) 路 Byron Donalds (R)
Rating: Cook: Lean R (via NPR) (2026-10-29)
Updated 2026-10-31 09:12 CT. Margin = first-listed candidate minus second; undecided voters are not allocated. Polls from the last 30 days; each pollster counts once (its latest poll); weights favor larger, newer polls. How we calculate this.
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Jolly | Donalds | Other | Sponsor type | Used in | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-28 to 2026-10-29 | 1200 LV | 45.0 | 49.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-25 | 813 LV | 44.0 | 48.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Numbers from SRI release; n/field dates from NYT toplines listing (reported by qz.com) | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| Echelon Insights for NetChoice | 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23 | 515 LV | 44.0 | 50.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Other answers: Scott Jewett 1.0 | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| co/efficient | 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-20 | 1014 LV | 40.0 | 49.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| ActiVote | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-19 | 400 LV | 48.3 | 51.7 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| University of North Florida | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-19 | 1378 LV | 47.0 | 49.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| YouGov for N+ Univision | 2026-10-02 to 2026-10-15 | 825 RV | 42.0 | 50.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Change Research for Freedom Project USA | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-10 | 920 LV | 47.0 | 47.0 | Partisan (D) | All Polls only | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| MDW Communications for EDGE Communications | 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-10 | 2351 LV | 44.0 | 46.0 | Unknown sponsor | Superseded by newer poll | source | ||
| St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-07 | 836 LV | 45.0 | 45.0 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source | ||
| Targoz Market Research for The James Madison Institute | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04 | 857 LV | 42.0 | 52.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-04 | 1200 RV | 39.0 | 48.0 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source |
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