How the Monolith Average works

Two numbers

Monolith Average = nonpartisan polls only. Monolith Average (All Polls) = every disclosed poll incl. partisan and unknown-sponsor polls, but only the latest poll per partisan/unknown sponsor.

Window

Polls whose fieldwork ended in the last 30 days (age 0-30 days from as-of date).

One poll per pollster

Each pollster counts once per race: its latest poll. Version preference LV > RV > adults (approval: adults > RV > LV); full-field ballot preferred.

Weight

w = sqrt(min(n,1500)/600) x 0.5^(age/14). No house effects, no pollster ratings in v1.

Averaging

Each candidate share is the weighted mean of that share; margin = A – B, computed before rounding. Undecideds are not allocated.

Minimum

Fewer than 2 pollsters -> "Insufficient polling".

Gap note

Shown when the two numbers differ by 2.0 points or more.

Partisan rule

Partisan = sponsored by a party, campaign, PAC, or party-aligned group, or a campaign internal. Media, academic, nonprofit and self-funded pollster releases are nonpartisan even if a lead source flags them (e.g. co/efficient, Trafalgar self-releases). Unknown sponsor: excluded from Monolith Average, allowed in All Polls.

Sources

VoteHub API (CC BY 4.0) and Wikipedia used only as lead lists; every row links the original release. RCP/DDHQ averages are never copied. Polls whose only source is a reporter/analyst social post are excluded; pollster/sponsor own posts are accepted.

Blocked firms

Wedgewood Polls (fabrication admitted Oct 20, 2026), Median Strategies (Aug 2026), SoCal Strategies (site vanished Oct 22, 2026).

Leaners

When a pollster reports both an initial ballot and a leaners-pushed ballot, we use the leaners-pushed version (editor decision, Oct 30, 2026).

Alaska (ranked-choice)

Alaska uses ranked-choice voting. We average first-choice (round-1) shares for every pollster, so polls are comparable. Final-round (ranked-choice) results are listed in poll notes for context only and do not enter the average.

Decimals

When a release publishes figures to one decimal place, we enter the decimals; otherwise whole numbers as published.

Approval

Only polls an editor has approved count. A poll is approved once both of its figures have been checked against the original release (automatically or by hand). Polls not yet checked are held out until they are and are listed internally for review.

Corrections

[email protected]. Editor: Timothy Luby.

License

Averages CC BY 4.0; credit "Monolith Average, themonolith.media/".

Example

A 1,000-person poll finished 7 days ago gets weight sqrt(1000/600) × 0.5^(7/14) = 1.291 × 0.707 = 0.913. A 600-person poll finished today gets 1.0. A 3,000-person poll is capped at 1,500, so its size factor is sqrt(1500/600) = 1.58.

What we don’t do (v1)

No pollster ratings, no house-effect adjustments, no allocation of undecided voters, no forecasts. Averages from other outlets are never copied.

Changes

Any change to this method is logged with a date on this page and in the corrections log.