MT-01 House polling average
MT-01 House: Monolith Average
Sam Forstag (D) · Aaron Flint (R) · Nick Sheedy (L)
Rating: Toss-up per Cook, Sabato, Inside Elections (Cook 2026-10-30; Sabato 2026-10-27; Inside Elections latest)
Monolith Average · nonpartisan polls
Insufficient polling
1 qualifying pollster(s) in the last 30 days; at least 2 needed.
Monolith Average (All Polls)
D+10.1
Sam Forstag (D) 48.5% · Aaron Flint (R) 38.4%
2 pollsters
2 pollsters
Updated 2026-10-30 14:41 CT. Margin = first-listed candidate minus second; undecided voters are not allocated. Polls from the last 30 days; each pollster counts once (its latest poll); weights favor larger, newer polls. How we calculate this.
Monolith Average (All Polls): daily margin since Oct. 1
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
Polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Forstag | Flint | Other | Sponsor type | Used in | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montana State University Billings | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-21 | 287 A | 49.0 | 32.0 | Sheedy 4.0 | Nonpartisan | All Polls only | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text |
| Public Policy Polling for House Majority PAC | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | 541 LV | 48.0 | 45.0 | Partisan (D) | All Polls only | source | Source is a social post from the House Majority PAC communications account (verify); treated as the original release | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Emerson College for Poll Vault | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-14 | 329 LV | 50.0 | 46.0 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source |
Spot an error? Email [email protected]. Downloadable data files are coming soon.