Minnesota Senate polling average
Minnesota Senate: Monolith Average
Peggy Flanagan (D) · Michele Tafoya (R)
Monolith Average · nonpartisan polls
D+10.4
Peggy Flanagan (D) 50.9% · Michele Tafoya (R) 40.5%
2 pollsters
2 pollsters
Monolith Average (All Polls)
D+8.1
Peggy Flanagan (D) 49.9% · Michele Tafoya (R) 41.8%
3 pollsters
3 pollsters
The two averages differ by 2.3 points. The All Polls number includes partisan or unknown-sponsor polls; see the table for which polls each number uses.
Updated 2026-10-31 09:12 CT. Margin = first-listed candidate minus second; undecided voters are not allocated. Polls from the last 30 days; each pollster counts once (its latest poll); weights favor larger, newer polls. How we calculate this.
Monolith Average: daily margin since Oct. 1
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
Monolith Average (All Polls): daily margin since Oct. 1
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
Polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Flanagan | Tafoya | Other | Sponsor type | Used in | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (St. Paul) | 2026-10-24 to 2026-10-28 | 714 LV | 48.0 | 41.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | n/field dates from polling-desk.com (NYT feed) and 99chambers listing; numbers on KSTP | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-26 | 752 LV | 54.0 | 40.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | With leaners | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| Victory Insights for Michele Tafoya campaign | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22 | 1194 LV | 47.8 | 44.4 | Partisan (R) | All Polls only | source | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| SurveyUSA for KSTP-TV (St. Paul); KAAL-TV (Austin); WDIO-DT (Duluth) | 2026-10-08 to 2026-10-12 | 718 LV | 45.0 | 42.0 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source | Other answers: Marisa Simonetti 2.0, Rebecca Whiting 2.0 | |
| GQR for Senate Majority PAC | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-04 | 800 LV | 50.0 | 42.0 | Partisan (D) | Not used (disclosure gap) | source | Disclosure gap: only source is a social-media post, not the release | Other answers: Marisa Simonetti 4.0, Rebecca Whiting 2.0 | |
| Big Data Poll for Public Polling Project | 2026-09-29 to 2026-09-30 | 622 LV | 46.0 | 44.0 | Nonpartisan | Outside 30-day window | source | Other answers: Rebecca Whiting 5.0 |
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