David Crowley (D) · Tom Tiffany (R)
Rating: Cook: Lean D (via NPR) (2026-10-29)
Updated 2026-10-31 09:12 CT. Margin = first-listed candidate minus second; undecided voters are not allocated. Polls from the last 30 days; each pollster counts once (its latest poll); weights favor larger, newer polls. How we calculate this.
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Crowley | Tiffany | Other | Sponsor type | Used in | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wick for League of American Workers | 2026-10-19 to 2026-10-23 | 1213 LV | 47.7 | 44.7 | Partisan (R) | All Polls only | source | Decimals from release: Crowley 47.7, Tiffany 44.7 | Approved: hand: decimals read from release | |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-22 | 668 LV | 51.0 | 44.0 | Nonpartisan | All Polls only | source | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| Marquette Law School Poll | 2026-10-14 to 2026-10-22 | 818 RV | 47.0 | 44.0 | Nonpartisan | Other version (not used) | source | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| Z to A Research for Rust Belt Rising | 2026-09-28 to 2026-10-01 | 662 LV | 49.0 | 44.0 | Partisan (D) | All Polls only | source | Source is a social post from the sponsor's own account (Rust Belt Rising); treated as the original release | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text |
Spot an error? Email [email protected]. Downloadable data files are coming soon.