Texas Senate polling average
Texas Senate: Monolith Average
James Talarico (D) · Ken Paxton (R)
Monolith Average · nonpartisan polls
D+2.5
James Talarico (D) 49.0% · Ken Paxton (R) 46.5%
13 pollsters
13 pollsters
Monolith Average (All Polls)
D+3.1
James Talarico (D) 49.3% · Ken Paxton (R) 46.2%
15 pollsters
15 pollsters
Updated 2026-10-31 09:12 CT. Margin = first-listed candidate minus second; undecided voters are not allocated. Polls from the last 30 days; each pollster counts once (its latest poll); weights favor larger, newer polls. How we calculate this.
Monolith Average: daily margin since Oct. 1
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
Monolith Average (All Polls): daily margin since Oct. 1
Above the dashed line = first-listed candidate leads (positive margin); gaps = fewer than 2 pollsters that day.
Polls
| Pollster | Dates | Sample | Talarico | Paxton | Other | Sponsor type | Used in | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-10-22 to 2026-10-28 | 400 LV | 52.1 | 47.9 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-26 to 2026-10-28 | 1221 LV | 48.4 | 49.4 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-27 | 923 LV | 49.0 | 43.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| A2 Insights | 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-27 | 631 LV | 50.2 | 47.2 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Data for Progress | 2026-10-23 to 2026-10-26 | 712 LV | 49.0 | 45.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Toplines: dfp_2026_tx_ge_tabs.pdf; Brown 2 | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| YouGov Blue for 254 Labs | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-26 | 1000 LV | 51.0 | 43.0 | Unknown sponsor | All Polls only | source | 1,000 registered voters interviewed, results weighted to likely-voter targets (release reports "among likely voters") | Approved: hand: both figures, n and field dates confirmed in source | |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-25 | 2000 LV | 49.0 | 47.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Other answers: Ted Brown 3.0 | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| ActiVote | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-21 | 400 LV | 51.0 | 49.0 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| YouGov for N+ Univision | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-21 | 1000 RV | 50.0 | 45.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| VoteHub/Verasight | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20 | 601 LV | 47.6 | 45.2 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Other answers: Ted Brown 1.4 | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research for Fox News | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19 | 1398 LV | 49.0 | 49.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Emerson College for Nexstar Media | 2026-10-17 to 2026-10-19 | 1000 LV | 48.0 | 46.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Other answers: Ted Brown 1.0 | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Pollfinity | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | 278 LV | 48.0 | 43.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Other answers: Ted Brown 2.0 | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | 969 LV | 51.0 | 47.0 | Unknown sponsor | All Polls only | source | Other answers: Ted Brown 2.0 | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 | 1200 LV | 48.0 | 49.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| ActiVote | 2026-09-30 to 2026-10-14 | 400 LV | 51.9 | 48.1 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy Group for The Cook Political Report | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13 | 934 LV | 49.0 | 44.0 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source | ||
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-11 | 854 LV | 46.7 | 47.2 | Nonpartisan | Superseded by newer poll | source | Other answers: Ted Brown 2.2 | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text | |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-08 | 617 LV | 48.0 | 44.0 | Nonpartisan | Both | source | Approved: automatic: both figures found next to the names in the release text |
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