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Monolith Averages: 2026 polling averages

Two numbers for every Senate race, every governor race and every House race rated Toss-up: the Monolith Average, built only from nonpartisan polls, and the Monolith Average (All Polls), which also counts partisan and unknown-sponsor polls (one poll per sponsor). Races with fewer than two qualifying pollsters in the last 30 days say “Insufficient polling” rather than show a number. Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026.

Sorted by closeness of the Monolith Average. Updated 2026-10-30 14:41 CT.

National

Generic congressional ballot

D+7.6

All Polls: D+7.6 · 11 pollsters

Trump job approval

Net -24.9

All Polls: Net -25.0 · 13 pollsters

Senate

Race	Matchup	Monolith Average	All Polls	Pollsters (M/All)	Gap note
Iowa Senate	Josh Turek (D) v. Ashley Hinson (R)	R+0.7	R+0.7	8/8
Alaska Senate	Mary Peltola (D) v. Dan Sullivan (R)	D+1.8	D+1.8	2/2
Nebraska Senate	Dan Osborn (I) v. Pete Ricketts (R)	R+2.0	R+2.0	2/2
Kansas Senate	Adam Hamilton (D) v. Roger Marshall (R)	D+2.2	D+2.2	3/3
Maine Senate	Troy Jackson (D) v. Susan Collins (R)	D+2.3	D+2.3	6/6
Texas Senate	James Talarico (D) v. Ken Paxton (R)	D+2.4	D+2.5	12/13
South Carolina Senate	Annie Andrews (D) v. Darline Graham (R)	R+2.5	R+2.5	2/2
Ohio Senate (special)	Sherrod Brown (D) v. Jon Husted (R)	D+2.9	D+2.9	6/6
Michigan Senate	Abdul El-Sayed (D) v. Mike Rogers (R)	D+4.5	D+4.2	4/7
Florida Senate (special)	Angie Nixon (D) v. Ashley Moody (R)	R+6.7	R+6.7	5/5
New Hampshire Senate	Chris Pappas (D) v. John Sununu (R)	D+7.0	D+7.0	2/2
Georgia Senate	Jon Ossoff (D) v. Mike Collins (R)	D+9.7	D+9.7	4/4
Alabama Senate	Everett Wess (D) v. Barry Moore (R)	R+10.6	R+10.6	2/2
North Carolina Senate	Roy Cooper (D) v. Michael Whatley (R)	D+11.1	D+11.1	6/6
Illinois Senate	Juliana Stratton (D) v. Don Tracy (R)	D+11.6	D+11.6	2/2
Montana Senate	Kurt Alme (R) v. Seth Bodnar (I)	R+12.3	R+12.3	2/2
South Dakota Senate	Brian Bengs (I) v. Mike Rounds (R)	R+15.2	R+10.2	3/4	Yes
Massachusetts Senate	Ed Markey (D) v. John Deaton (R)	D+28.2	D+28.2	2/2
Arkansas Senate	Hallie Shoffner (D) v. Tom Cotton (R)	Insufficient polling	R+13.5	1/2
Colorado Senate	John Hickenlooper (D) v. Mark Baisley (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Delaware Senate	Chris Coons (D) v. Michael Katz (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Idaho Senate	Todd Achilles (I) v. Jim Risch (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Kentucky Senate	Charles Booker (D) v. Andy Barr (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Louisiana Senate	Jamie Davis (D) v. Julia Letlow (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Minnesota Senate	Peggy Flanagan (D) v. Michele Tafoya (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Mississippi Senate	Scott Colom (D) v. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
New Jersey Senate	Cory Booker (D) v. Justin Murphy (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
New Mexico Senate	Ben Ray Luján (D) v. Larry Marker (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Oklahoma Senate	Jasmine Thomas (D) v. Kevin Hern (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Oregon Senate	Jeff Merkley (D) v. David Brock Smith (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Rhode Island Senate	Jack Reed (D) v. Raymond McKay (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
Tennessee Senate	Marquita Bradshaw (D) v. Bill Hagerty (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Virginia Senate	Mark Warner (D) v. Bert Mizusawa (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
West Virginia Senate	Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) v. Shelley Moore Capito (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Wyoming Senate	James Byrd (D) v. Harriet Hageman (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0

Governor

Race	Matchup	Monolith Average	All Polls	Pollsters (M/All)
Georgia Governor	Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) v. Rick Jackson (R)	R+1.2	R+1.2	5/5
Ohio Governor	Amy Acton (D) v. Vivek Ramaswamy (R)	D+1.3	D+1.3	7/7
Texas Governor	Gina Hinojosa (D) v. Greg Abbott (R)	R+3.1	R+3.1	10/11
Kansas Governor	Cindy Holscher (D) v. Ty Masterson (R)	R+5.0	R+5.0	2/2
Iowa Governor	Rob Sand (D) v. Zach Lahn (R)	D+5.5	D+5.5	7/7
Arizona Governor	Katie Hobbs (D) v. Andy Biggs (R)	D+6.0	D+5.7	3/4
Florida Governor	David Jolly (D) v. Byron Donalds (R)	R+6.0	R+5.4	6/7
Maine Governor	Hannah Pingree (D) v. Bobby Charles (R)	D+6.5	D+6.5	4/4
Nebraska Governor	Lynne Walz (D) v. Jim Pillen (R)	R+6.5	R+6.5	2/2
New Hampshire Governor	Cinde Warmington (D) v. Kelly Ayotte (R)	R+7.2	R+7.2	2/2
Michigan Governor	Jocelyn Benson (D) v. John James (R)	D+8.2	D+8.4	2/3
Minnesota Governor	Amy Klobuchar (D) v. Lisa Demuth (R)	D+9.7	D+9.7	2/2
Connecticut Governor	Ned Lamont (D) v. Ryan Fazio (R)	D+16.7	D+16.7	2/2
Illinois Governor	JB Pritzker (D) v. Darren Bailey (R)	D+18.2	D+18.2	2/2
Alaska Governor	Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins (D) v. Bernadette Wilson (R)	D+19.5	D+19.5	3/3
Massachusetts Governor	Maura Healey (D) v. Mike Minogue (R)	D+26.7	D+26.7	2/2
California Governor	Xavier Becerra (D) v. Steve Hilton (R)	D+27.4	D+27.4	2/2
Alabama Governor	Doug Jones (D) v. Tommy Tuberville (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
Arkansas Governor	Fredrick Love (D) v. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Colorado Governor	Phil Weiser (D) v. Victor Marx (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Hawaii Governor	Josh Green (D) v. Gary Cordery (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Idaho Governor	Terri Pickens (D) v. Brad Little (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Maryland Governor	Wes Moore (D) v. Dan Cox (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Nevada Governor	Aaron Ford (D) v. Joe Lombardo (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/1
New Mexico Governor	Deb Haaland (D) v. Gregg Hull (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
New York Governor	Kathy Hochul (D) v. Bruce Blakeman (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
Oklahoma Governor	Cyndi Munson (D) v. Mike Mazzei (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Oregon Governor	Tina Kotek (D) v. Christine Drazan (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
Pennsylvania Governor	Josh Shapiro (D) v. Stacy Garrity (R)	Insufficient polling	D+21.7	1/2
Rhode Island Governor	Helena Foulkes (D) v. Aaron Guckian (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
South Carolina Governor	Jermaine Johnson (D) v. Alan Wilson (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
South Dakota Governor	Dan Ahlers (D) v. Larry Rhoden (R)	Insufficient polling	R+14.0	1/2
Tennessee Governor	Jerri Green (D) v. Marsha Blackburn (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
Vermont Governor	Amanda Janoo (D) v. Phil Scott (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
Wisconsin Governor	David Crowley (D) v. Tom Tiffany (R)	Insufficient polling	D+3.4	0/2
Wyoming Governor	Kenneth Casner (D) v. Eric Barlow (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0

Toss-up House races

Race	Matchup	Monolith Average	All Polls	Pollsters (M/All)
AL-02 House	Shomari Figures (D) v. Rhett Marques (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
CA-22 House	Randy Villegas (D) v. David Valadao (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
CO-05 House	Jessica Killin (D) v. Jeff Crank (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
FL-14 House	Kathy Castor (D) v. Mike Beltran (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
FL-22 House	Pia Dandiya (D) v. Casey Askar (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
IA-02 House	Lindsay James (D) v. Joe Mitchell (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
KY-06 House	Zach Dembo (D) v. Ralph Alvarado (R)	Insufficient polling	D+6.9	0/2
MI-04 House	Sean McCann (D) v. Bill Huizenga (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
MI-07 House	William Lawrence (D) v. Tom Barrett (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
MI-10 House	Christina Hines (D) v. Michael Bouchard (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
MO-02 House	Fred Wellman (D) v. Ann Wagner (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
MT-01 House	Sam Forstag (D) v. Aaron Flint (R)	Insufficient polling	D+10.1	1/2
NC-01 House	Don Davis (D) v. Laurie Buckhout (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	1/1
NY-17 House	Cait Conley (D) v. Mike Lawler (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
OH-07 House	Brian Poindexter (D) v. Max Miller (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
OH-09 House	Marcy Kaptur (D) v. Derek Merrin (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
PA-01 House	Bob Harvie (D) v. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
SC-01 House	Nancy Lacore (D) v. Jenny Honeycutt (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/1
TX-15 House	Bobby Pulido (D) v. Monica De La Cruz (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
TX-34 House	Vicente Gonzalez (D) v. Eric Flores (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
TX-35 House	Johnny Garcia (D) v. Carlos De La Cruz (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/1
VA-01 House	Shannon Taylor (D) v. Rob Wittman (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/1
VA-05 House	Tom Perriello (D) v. John McGuire (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/0
WA-03 House	Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) v. John Braun (R)	Insufficient polling	Insufficient polling	0/1